Prepared by: Muhammad Sulayman
Introduction:

Recently, there has been much talk about the military mobilization of the Turkish Armed Forces and their allies from the factions of the National Army and the preparation of a military operation aimed at controlling the area of Tal Rifaat and Manbij at the expense of the Kurdish forces and the regime in the area, but so far there seems to be no agreement on the return from northwestern Syria (de-escalation zone). Do the recent steps of Heyet Tahrir al-Sham represent a preparation for paying the return to the area of Turkmen Mountain and Jisr al-Shughur, about which the regime and the Russians have long complained, as it is an impregnable fortress against the regime’s forces and a starting point for repeated operations and attacks on sites of the regime and its allies on the Syrian coast. “Is the opposite the areas of Turkmen Mountain and Jisr al-Shughur or one of them?”

Military escalation

In the region of Turkmen Mountain, northeast of Lattakia, and the area of Jisr al-Shughur, a serious military escalation occurred between the Islamic Party of Turkistan and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham on one side and the two groups (Jund al-Sham), led by Muslim al-Shishani, and Jund Allah, which was led by Abu Fatima al-Turki (and currently led by Abu Hanif al-Adhari), and independent groups of Eastern European nationalities on the other side. Near the city of Yamdiya, the town of al-Shahroura, and the village of al-Salour in Jabal al-Turkman, northeast of the governorate of Latakia, military convoys affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham used heavy weapons to carry out a violent attack on facilities belonging to the Jund al-Sham group and other groups affiliated with Jund Allah. Intermittent clashes also took place in the eastern and northern neighborhoods of Jisr al-Shughur city, west of Idlib governorate. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham had sent five military convoys armed with heavy weapons and medium machine guns to Turkmen Mountain and the vicinity of Jisr al-Shughur city, west of Idlib governorate. Tanks, mortars, and RPGs were also used in the clashes in addition to drones. And there is confirmed information of casualties on both sides. Large, heavily armed forces affiliated with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham deployed in the areas in western Idlib, carving up the region as far as Turkmen Mountain before fighters of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham began attacking the jihadist headquarters and mobilized factions operating in Turkmen Mountain in northern Lattakia, coinciding with the deployment of security members at roadblocks leading into western Idlib.

At least seven members of the Jund al-Sham and Jund Allah groups were documented killed while repelling Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s attack on their positions in Jisr al-Shughur and the countryside in Lattakia. And at least four members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham were also killed in these clashes, bringing the death toll among the warring parties to 11, while there is information about others missing and dead. In addition to many injured people, some of whom were in serious condition, have been taken to nearby hospitals.

In a related matter, HTS captured six members of Muslim al-Shishani and Azeri jihadist groups, while the latter groups managed to capture 15 members of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham managed to take control of several locations near the villages of Lamdiya and Zaytouna in the Turkmen Mountain in Latakia countryside, and other locations in Jisr al-Shughur. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is still operating throughout the western countryside of Jisr al-Shughur, bringing military reinforcements from its camps and security centers in al-Hamamah, Darkush, and Jisr al-Shughur.

Abd al-Malik al-Shishani, the commander of the Ajnad al-Caucasus faction, hastened to settle the dispute between the two parties, but after leaving a meeting with the leadership of the Jund Allah group, he was shot and wounded by the group.

Although Muslim al-Shishani initially chose the option of confrontation, after negotiations and the intervention of other parties and in order to avoid bloodshed, he began to surrender his positions and left Jabal al-Turkman and Jisr al-Shughour with about seventy members of his group, sources from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham reported. The latter published a video showing Muslim al-Shishani’s departure with the Mehr al-Din group. The agreement was reached on the condition of handing over the wanted persons to the judiciary and exchanging prisoners between the conflicting parties. The deal was made on the condition of handing over the wanted persons to the judiciary and exchanging prisoners between the conflicting parties. This agreement was reached through the mediation of the Islamic Party of Turkistan, the Uzbek group, and other jihadist groups. By contrast, no settlement has yet been reached with the Jund Allah group, which is in the Turkmen Mountain region, and there are reports of renewed clashes between the two parties.

Reactions

In the face of the rapid escalation of developments on the ground, several factions, under the name “the Major Blocs of Immigrants in the Levant Field,” published a joint statement, in which they called on those who described as immigrants and supporters, for the unity and patience. The statement was titled “A word of loyalty and advice,” calling for standing together in the face of what they called “criminals and those involved in security problems.” To control the security and stability of the area, unite efforts, unify the vision and participate in the joint operations rooms operating in the region to confront “the aggression of the occupiers and their militias.”

The joint declaration bore the signatures of the Turkistan Islamic Party – Jama’at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad (Uzbeks) – Jaysh al-Muhajireen wal-Ansar (Caucasians) – Sham al-Islam (Moroccans) – Muhajireen bilad al-Haramayn (Al-Ata’a Gathering) – and the Tajik Group – the movement of Ahl al-Sunnah Emigrants in Iran. In addition, there is the Albanians Group – the Maldives Group – the Abu Khaled Al-Turki Group – the Uqba Bin Farqad Brigade (Azeris), along with many leaders, including Abu Muadh Al-Masri, Abu Al-Fath Al-Farghali, Abu Safiya Al-Irani, Abu Qatada Al-Albani, Abu Hussein Al-Urduni, and Abu Hajar Al-Tunisi, and Abu Zaid Al-Jazaery.

Reasons and motives for escalation

• The security apparatus of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has asked some members of these jihadist groups to appear before the judiciary on various charges but have refused several times.

• Hayat Tahrir al-Sham excludes the jihadist groups in its areas of influence and burnishes its image.

• Messages and assurances to countries in the region that they are capable of maintaining security and control in Idlib and fighting extremist organizations.

• The leader “Muslim al-Shishani” accused “Hayat Tahrir al-Sham” of lying and deception in an attempt to dismantle his faction after it had previously asked him to hand over his weapons and leave Idlib.

• Accusing the Jund al-Sham faction of containing criminals of the “Islamic State” organization.

• HTS seeks to fully control the jihadist arena in Idlib and set itself up as the unchallenged ruler and controller in the region.

Conclusion

These groups will not be able to withstand the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham because the balance of power is very different; They will disappear or join the ranks of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or end up in the prisons of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham or become sleeper cells. That makes their impact later limited and very weak.

This is where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s hugest challenge on the coastal front begins because this operation will put HTS before a big challenge; It is the matter of securing the area, operating the Stationing points, and repelling the attacks of the regime and Russia in the event of military action. In the case of the fall of this region after the elimination of these groups that are stationed there and have protected it for many years, (Tahrir al-Sham) will be put in a critical situation, and accusations will be made against it of handing over the region one after another, as it was accused of doing before in similar cases.